StarHub

Seems like selling has intensified! Hope StarHub support at $2.20 will hold. Good luck to me. Sian liao....

29 March 2006

What can I say? CAO is back and hogging the limelight. Open at $1.30 and shot to a high of $1.85. I was all ready to short the bugger at $1.80 but after thinking how hard I earn my money thru FA and TA, I am not ready to donate back to the market. So I held back and watched my supposed profits clinking at the back of my mind.

Anyway, there is some mild profit taking for StarHub. The low volume and 2 cents decline is nothing to be too concern about. With the Reverse Head & Shoulder break out the past 3 days and closing at $2.23 yesterday is a positive sign. Typically the previous resistance should act as support. I am looking at a support level between $2.20 and some strong support at $2.14 to $2.16.

ZHONGGUO POWERPLUS was featured in the Sunday Times as an undervalued stock. I would bet that nobody looked at it before Sunday. Anyway, this fellow had a stellar run since Monday. Now, I am attend a course on FA, I hope to be able to contribute positively to the investment community soon. I have Decipher and Gallen to thank as what they do encourage me to share what I have learnt (be it positive or negative ...hehe)

With the STI achieving new highs, I would like to share 2 things. The high can get higher and correction is imminent :). Be nimble.

StarHub - R H&S Formation

A possible break out, however volume is key. Will have to see if the volume is sustainable tomorrow for the break out to be clean and clear making 2.20 to 2.23 resistance to be support. The various brokerage and investment banks have been crying a buy for StarHub for about 3 months and their average price for Starhub is between $2.20 to $2.60, lets see if this is the break. StarHub CHEONG AH!!!!!

StarHub - Blue Line Theory - Revision

Decipher posted this as one of the quick picks on his blog yesterday night. If you have bought some when I posted, you should be reaping the benefits :)

With StarHub going Pay-Per-View for the world cup, it will definitely contribute positively to its bottom-line. Shareholders will be happy (like myself) For the viewers, it is a different story. Well, this is a case of demand and supply.

Soccer is the world most popular game. The organizers know it, the advertisers know it. This is the time where everything can command a premium. There are black markets tickets for popular games selling on the net; everyone wants to make a buck from this global event.

I guess the only crime the fans commit is the passion and devotion to the game and the price for this crime is S$15.25 for exsisting sports group subscriber or S$26.25 for non-sports group subscriber.

Delayed In Microsoft Windows "Vista"

Tech Stocks got another sell off on Tuesday when Microsoft (MS) delayed it's launch of the new Windows Operating System "Vista" This knee jerk effect is to be expected as MS Windows is loaded on all PCs. With every updated version of Windows, there is typically a need for one to upgrade their hardware as the requirement is usually increased.

One very key requirement that is always goes up is the storage footprint of the operating system. From the early days of MS Windows, it was below 100 megabyte to the Current Windows XP, which takes up about 2 Gigabyte of hard disk space. It is understandable why Seagate and Maxtor were badly hit. On the whole, the NASDAQ was hit, as other companies that are involved, chip producers, Ram producers, etc....were hit.

I have enclosed an update chart for some of the HDD parts suppliers in SG. Seagate just announced a US$300 Million plant in woodlands; this will definitely give a leg up to the supplier’s price.

HDD Sector - Commentary

B19.SI (Beyonics), M14.SI(Magnecomp), J09.SI(Jurong Tech), B01.SI (Brilliant), M29.SI (MMI)

From my simplistic point of view.

HDD related stocks (selective tech stock) have been hammered since the first week of Feb. Today, some of the HDD related stocks seems to on a reversal. Those which display some strength are MMI, Jurong Tech and Beyonics.

Brilliant, Magnecomp are still weak. As of now, Seagate and Maxtor are showing some strength on Wall Street and making some gains. I feel that the last month's consolidation is healthy.

With increase demand in consumer electronics (that require HDD storage medium) the HDD sector should be on a positive stepping as demand continues to drive the tech sector in general. Barring unforeseen circumstance, we will be able to see continual positive upside to the tech sector globally and locally.

HDD Sector

I think HDD related stocks going to run soon. Follow up with commentary later.

Tech Sector - Recent Sell Off - Part II

To add on to my earlier post. DB upgraded Chartered to from hold to buy with a target of S$1.80 (last traded $1.42 GMT +8 1030hrs) This upgrade affirms my believe that the tech sector (not to be confuse tech with internet related stocks i.e. Google, yahoo, etc) in on the right track, although it is a slow one but at least it is not going to be like the previous bubble where it burst and all hell broke lose.

Tech Sector - Recent Sell Off

I feel that the recent sell off was unwarranted. Tech sector has been slowly recovering since early 2005. Inventories have been cleared and with the demand in consumer electronics on the rise, the fundamentals are in place. TI's results was in inline but missed analyst expectations (analyst will be analyst, always shooting for impossible targets)

I think there should be a rebound in tech stocks soon.

StarHub - Blue Line Theory - Part 2

To add from my earlier post, the last 5 trading days StarHub has been a consolidation phase with yesterday breaking the $2.17 price which it as stuck during the phase.

8153 lots were married at between $2.152 to $2.171, with the large bulk of 6496 lots done at $2.152. These trade could be one rich man selling to another, FM taking positions, etc. with this married deal and price action over the last 5 days, $2.15 could be establish as a first support and next down $2.13 (20 MA) Another point to note is that the number buy up to sell down is 1.33 to 1.

Yesterday volume was a healthy 4.7 million share. It was 1 million more than the previous day. An average of 3 million shares is typically sufficient to move StarHub. With Decipher's blue theory, we could see it break $2.20 in the coming days to weeks. This trading week is larger plague with interest rate news and lower than expected tech earnings. This could be a dampener to the bullish push we saw yesterday.

The recent merger between AT&T and Bellsouth is sign that traditional Telco needs to innovate and find news revenue stream. The big triumph card that Telco has is a big fat pipe to homes. IPTV and Subscription TV will add a positive bottom line contributor. With this in mind, StarHub is in a unique position to be one of the first few triple play providers (Mobile, Cable TV and Broadband) to harness the new wave.

I am personally vested in this counter so my views could be more bullish.

StarHub - Blue Line Theory

For those who are following this counter, perhaps you would want to take a look at my previous write up and charts on StarHub. From my observation, StarHub has completed its consolidation phase in the last 5 trading session (price range from 2.14 to 2.16) and looks poise to move.

Please see updated daily charts.

Tech Sector

Intel Warns of Weaker Demand and Revises Forecast, this sort of news was expected to send shivers down shareholders of tech stocks but it DID NOT! In fact, the tech majors on Wall Street (Taxes Instrument, Cisco, Juniper) were all unshaken. They gain in mid-day trading but gave back some gains right before market close on Friday.

Intel has lost its lead as a sector leader in the technology arena, not because they are not producing good products but more of its competitors catching up with them.

AMD is Intel's long time rival in the PC processor field. In the past 3 years, AMD has stepped up is R&D and production to combat Intel's aggress anti-competition distribution and sales channel. AMD is gaining in foothold in the most lucrative part of the PC Processor segment, the high-end server and workstatation processors. These chips all command a high premium, a top of the line chip cost about US$1000 in bulk orders of 1000 units. Dell had an exclusive with Intel for their chipsets and CPUs, however realizing AMD dominance, they are now considering adopting enterprise wide AMD solutions (this was a taboo topic in Dell some years back as Intel threaten to cut Dell off should they choose to have AMD solutions in their product line up)

Intel has lost it's leadership and as an industry bell weather. Tonight, Texas Instrument’s Q1 earnings will set the tone for the Tech Sector. If they posted better than expected results and even better Q2 guidance, you can see the mirror effect on SGX listed tech stocks (i.e. Chartered, Stats, UTAC) To further add on, AMD has outsourced some of it's manufacturing to Charter and I am sure there will be more positive effect when AMD gains more market share.

Chartered, StatsChipPAC and UTAC have gain considerably in the last few trading sessions and according to the charts; there seem to be more to come if Taxes Instrument post positive news.


UTAC Daily Charts


StatChipPAC Daily Charts

Chartered Daily Charts

Brilliant - More Brilliance? Part 2

It is lunchtime and looks like my observations about Brilliant are just hopes!! :)

Well, traders are expected to unwind their positions this afternoon (cos it is friday, cos STI is so high, cos regional markets not performing, cos SiMSCI is not performing compared to spot market, etc.....) millions of reasons for one to square off their positions while they wait to re-enter with a lower price, this is part of the cycle of the market.

Cheers
SM

Brilliant - More Brilliance?

I am vested in Brilliant, so I follow very closely the developments of this stock. Let me share a few observations which I feel is kind of interesting.

Please note the 2 days in focus 2-Feb 2006 and 2-Mar 2006 (isn't it a coincidence that it is the same date?)

2-Feb 2006
1.) Candlestick on close - Bullish Separating Line
2.) Volume 5.16m
3.) Ratio Of Sell Down Vs Buy Up 41.8% vs. 58.2%

2-Mar 2006
1.) Candlestick on close - Bullish Separating Line
2.) Volume 5.06m
3.) Ratios of Sell down Vs Buy Up 32% vs. 68%

2 March mirrors almost exactly to 2 Feb, the indicators are look good as well. This observations might mean something, might mean nothing :)

UTAC - Blue Line Theory For The New Blue Chip?

Comfy, from a technical point of view, the indictors are positive and more upside should be in line.

1.) Fibo Retracement touches 50% and bounce off it.
2.) MACD - shallower valley and oscillator will have a golden cross in the next 2 days if price action remains positive
3.) RSI - Bouncing off the 30% mark
4.) STO - Golden Cross
5.) If you include Decipher's blue line theory and UTAC test 98 cents, you might see new high very soon.

From a FA point of view

Being upgrade to be a blue chip is very good news, if you look at the counter that are "upgraded" to be a blue chip, they usually go up (recent would be Noble, StarHub, Cosco)

As Tech is back in trend, you can see a industry upgrade for many tech stocks. StatsChipPAC just reaffirm their guidance. HDD sector enjoying more good times (Jur Tech and Magnecomp)

Barring unforseen circumstances, it is my view that UTAC will be postive tomorrow and could test 98 cents in days to weeks. Buyers Beware.

I am personally not vested in this counter.

Co-Relation Between Sesdaq & Brilliant

Just learn about stocks that have Beta (sensitivity of a stock's returns to the returns on some market index) My initial thoughts was that Brilliant was in tandem with the STI but closer examinations show that it move in sync with Sesdaq.

I tried to do an over lay of the 2 price movement but the results not what I had in mind. So I have enclosed 2 charts, one of the Sesdaq on of Brilliant. It illustrates how closely Brilliant tracks the index. Brilliant is just one of many stocks that may track an index, do a check with your portfolio or watchlist, you might be holding one that has a close beta to the STI or Sesdaq.

STI

Where the STI is going is a no brainer, just how much how fast and how long. These are the support, let hope it does retrace more than 50%.

S1 2475
S2 2463
S3 2455

Wall Street - 1 Comment

1 comment from Google's CFO sparked off a selling frenzy, coupled with 28 Feb being the last day of the month, it does not help. Wall Street indicies was all down. Europe is not spared either, the FTSE, CAC and DAX all down more than 1%.

I guess the STI will not be spared, traders will take advantage of this to sell down some counters. Good luck everyone!