Bulls and Bears

I think people expect the market to drop like a hot brick and hit the bottom. If the charts are telling a story, it looks like a painful and slow death.

Unless STI break the 3150 to 3200 range, i dun think there is any story. There are firm bulls and bears in the market, so at least this market is sane.

I think the maximum activity will be down not up.

SG Market

If we are going to reverse, we need to break 3200 with volume and gusto. STI is relentless pushing up hard and fast, mimicking our good brother Hang Seng.

I believe there are some can of worms that have yet to be open in this credit crisis. Perhaps, a 75 basis point cut will let the market breathe abit but i dun think the worse if over.

I dun think 3 months of rut can be resolve with a 2 day 300 pts move. I am a bull and like vibrant market but the odds seems to stack against this tired 10 year bull. Maybe it is time, maybe it is not.

Only time will tell, invest and trade safely.

STI Recovers Late In The Session

End of correction/meltdown? I think it is still too early to be said but that being said, there is money to be made in such fast and furious rebounds.

Those who sold today may wonder why they did it, those who bought are placing bets that Wall Street will not tank too much tonight.

I think we have downside bias for a few more session before a clearer picture can be seen.

STI -VE

This day was discuss by Stormwatch San and myself on SI forum but i think we have yet to see the worse. Now STI is -4%. Lets see the close, 3000 was easily run over...

Housing Loans

I was told about the disparity in valuation of houses between 2 banks. Lets assume bank 1 is local and bank 2 is foreign.

Bank 1 value the property at S$2.2M but Bank 2 only value it at S$1.5M, why the disparity? We are talking about a 700K difference. Anyone knows why the big gap? Please share.

Really Can Tahan Man

Sucker's rally? Maybe i am the sucker who did not participate. There is some good money to be made by just following the charts. I am kaisi lah, no two ways about it.

The market is really very resilient, for 2 days it manage to reverse the early losses and turn positive. That being said, technically and charts wise, new lows are made and highs are getting lower. If you are a chartist you will avoid going long but will short into strength.

Dow charts are also very ugly, lets see what tonight will hold. The last time, the Fed had a one day delay for taking action in the market. Since Ben spoke yesterday, we might see some action tonight.

To Ben Or Not To Ben?

Merrill Lynch & Co., the world's largest brokerage, on Thursday posted a fourth-quarter loss of nearly $10 billion after writing down some $14.6 billion worth of investments and trades slammed by the ongoing credit crisis.

If Ben were to cut 50 basis it might be too little too late, if 100 basis it might send the wrong signal. Market has priced in a 75 basis cut from Ben.

I feel that we are not done with this "correction" Some say today might be a suckers rally (I belong to that Camp) some say this rebound is going to be the start of a reversal.

Only time will tell :)

How Sia?

STI almost testing 3000, this is a major pivot point. If it break, i am not sure where all this will go.

I have listed down what are the events that happen and what could be the next posible event, pls feel free to comment or add anything.

Sub-Prime > Credit Crisis > Banks Write Down > Credit Default Swaps? > Extra Ordinary Event? > Ka Boom!!!

What happen in the previous crisis is something like that

Asian Fin Crisis > Russian Debt Crisis > LCTM > Dot.Com > 911

Some food for thought. I feel that we are not done with this correction/possible bear market.