trying to figure out the science and art of trading and investing

an exchange of trading and investing knowledge. the various postings in this blog are based on my personal opinion only and do not constitute as investment advice. The blog owner shall not be liable for any losses incurred by visitors who take investment action based on the postings.

Saturday, September 30, 2006

Unisteel

picture/charts speaks a thousand word :)

Star Hub

Still in the trade, if market setiments are ok. We should see it testing $2.28. Indicators are achieving a higher low with volume picking up steadily. Huat Arh!!!

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Ascott - Update

Likely to test the upper trend line next week. Indicators are looking good but a concited effort with volume and breaking the upper trendline is the only sure thing to affirm break the wedge.

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MDR

Broke up on 19 Sept with high volume, however still stuck in trading range of $0.035 to $0.05. I think it was a case of penny stocks running togther as the interest (volume) is steadily decreasing from 19 Sept. Indicators are looking good but my concern is with the volume.

The close on Friday is a good one. Lets see if next week MDR is able to take out the $0.05. Any buy now would be speculative.

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Thursday, September 28, 2006

Venture

Venture got a positive note from DBS and raise its target to $13.90. The price movement of the last 2 days effectively reverse Venture from its previous downtrend. If the momentum can be sustain, we could see it testing the $13.00 level tomorrow and perhaps the recent high of $13.60

The volume, MACD and STO all looks promising. Not vested. With the seasonal rotation coming into play for tech stocks.

Venture can really stand to benefit from this reversal. Going into Q406, some of the tech counters got upgraded by GK this morning as well. It apprears that the stage is set for some tech rally cum year end. However, i think there will be a general market correction before the start of this rally.

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Monday, September 25, 2006

China Sun

Still traveling in range of the upper and lower trendline. Likely to test the 50% retracement. Volume is way below the 50-day average of 17.5 million shares. All things point to range trading (following the 2 trend lines) Indicators point to a possible downside bias.

The steady decline does not look good. Wall Street Futures looking good (+30 pts now) hope it provides some positive catalyst to move CSB. Not vested.

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Ascott

A descending wedge formed from the highs of July and August. Volume from 20th Sept indicates selling pressure increasing since then. Indicators do not look pretty. The increased volume and negative divergence of the indicators point to a possible retracement to 38.2% ($0.95) and 23.6% ($0.915).

The likelihood of Ascott bouncing off the 38.2% retracement is high but beware and assess the sentiment before taking a position. I think a clearer picture will emerge by Wednesday for a possible entry point.

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SPH

A quick update. Results our end of Oct. Closing on to upper trend line. I am likely be pick up some warrants for SPH. Am vested in mother as well.

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Saturday, September 23, 2006

Straits Times Index

Notice the raising wedge. The small wave now seems to be echoing the bigger old wave. If there is not decisive break up, we could see a possible correction coming along. I seriously hope i am wrong about this.

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StarHub - Trade Taken - Update

Wall street legs soft again. An update on the trade i took yesterday.

TA Wise

If 2.19 do not hold, i will cut my position at 2.15.

Possible re-entry point could be at the recent low of 2.07 or 2.01. If 2.01 breaks with high volume. Suggest caution

Reaons for entry at 2.20, key Fibo retracement level. Hourly charts showing possible reversal. Exhuastion of seller.

Not sure how soft StarHub will be but i will take a punt. No point doing so much TA without trying, i hope i am right :)

FA wise

- CLSA dropped Starhub from portfolio could explain the drop.
- Price Target revision by Goldman from $2.60 to 2.70 but drop rating from Buy to Netural could have some tussle by the bulls and bears.
- BNP covers StarHub with a $2.75 could provide some support.

Friday, September 22, 2006

StarHub - Trade Taken


Take 5 lots @ 2.20 to tikum. Update with charts later

StarHub - Possible Reversal


Update on StarHub, possible reversal. Stay tuned.

Thursday, September 21, 2006

Star Hub

Update on StarHub. With reference to my Sept 8 post. It seems the correction is in progress. Better to wait and see. No point taking a weak position now. Let see if the 50% retracement will hold.

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Thursday, September 14, 2006

Straits Times Index

Nicely moving within the secondary trend up after the May corrections. today STI open up but gave away the gains. The STI achieved a higher low (28 Aug, 12 Sept) Beautiful! The lower price of crude helped the market a fair bit this week. Wall Street has been a positve catalyst as well. After the 20 Sept Fed Meeting, i hope it is smooth sailing ahead. This steady upward move will allow STI to challange the highs of May.

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Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Brilliant

I must say, I AM DISAPPOINTED with brilliant's performance today. In the morning, things were looking good but slide as the day progress.

Technically Does not look good. Candlesticks show a bearish engulfing pattern over yesterday's candle. Price bounced the 50% retracement at $0.275 to close at 0.280.The failure to close on or above the 200 EMA is also a bit worrying.The increased volume is does make me uneasy. MACD is not a gone case yet but will have to be careful. STO, RSI have divergence. The weekly charts still look good. For this chart I use the 20,50 and 200 day EMA vs. my normal 10,30 and 90 EMA. Please take note.

Gut Feel Most HDD related stocks have made a run, today plastic is in play. Jurtech is leader for HDD/Manufacturing. I "feel" that brilliant run is not over but I could be wrong. Over all, techs are still in play. Lots of room to go.

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Monday, September 11, 2006

Brilliant

What a beautiful chart. I think these sorts of charts are pretty self-explanatory. If Wall Street close positive tonight. We may see Brilliant testing the $0.30 psychology level and if there is sufficient momentum, perhaps $0.32/$0.325? :)

Today there is movement in most HDD stocks. Like i said last saturday, tech related stocks could be moving. Also, Magnecomp is likely to test blue line theory if Wall Street has a postive close tonight. Please note that blue line theory must be accompained by high volume (typically 100% more than the 50 day average volume to trigger a move, this is just a guide)

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Saturday, September 09, 2006

Where Is Oil Money Going?

Make a wild guess. Crude has dropped more than $US10 from its high. Market is targeting about US$60 - 62. I would like to see it go to US$52 to 58 range. In any case, market is going thru a cycle. I am not saying oil plays are dead, just taking a break. With the decrease in oil prices, transport stocks are likely to benefit.

You can slowly see that tech is coming into flavour. With the christmas shopping season kicking off soon, you can expect some tech stocks to move. The first slavo was fired with Chartered, UTAC and Jur Tech moving from their lows. Last week, MMI was the big winner. Venture looking to acquire. You can expect M&A to generate some activities.

Of course, lets not forget property stocks. Most of them are flying. SC Global, Cap land, Kep Land, City Dev...the list goes on.

Friday, September 08, 2006

Star Hub

StarHub is presenting an intersting seceniro. Singtel gaining strength after XE but not StarHub. Volume is picking up wtih each bid down. Looks like a correction of some magnitude is coming. As u can see from the Fibo retracement. 2.27, 2.24, 2.19 and 2.06. Lets see where it will go. May pick up some if conditions are right.

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Brilliant

Interesting movement but i am not too encourage by the lack of volume. Maybe nothing or purely just spill over effect. Do note that Brilliant just XD on Tuesday. Charts is sui but Mr Market is a funny chap! Lets see monday!

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Wednesday, September 06, 2006

K1 Ventur Daily

Back by the dividend, it should not drop too much. Seems to be going side ways for now. Likely to gather some strength before the XD. MACD histogram is not going down much. Volume is still very low. Personally, i feel u may need to wait it out. Rem to put stop loss and profit target. Now it is sitting on 50% retracement, lets hope it holds.

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Friday, September 01, 2006

Magnecomp - Update

Sadly, Magnecomp did not move as planned. After half day of trading, only 1 lot done at $0.815. Very illiquid. To add, today MMI got another upgrade from CS. I alway say. When 1 person say, move the counter to your watchlist and monitor indicators. When the next person say, be prepared to take position. When your friend start discussing with you, look for sell signal!

Again, this is a hoot and hold not for the contra or faint hearted!