Gold, Oil and The Green Back

One is an indicator for inflation, one is the cause of inflation and one is sinking like the titanic. So? What is going to happen? If this trend persist, we are likely to see some pull back in global indices.

Market Rant

20 day EMA and support trend line at 2774, if Wall Street Futures is anything to go by (SGT 2207hrs) it is going to blood shed again. Today's 53 pts drop I think is healthy.

One of my Investor/Trader friend said this "if Dow breach 12000 and close below that, we might be in for a rough ride. If it bounce of 12000, we might see a stronger push up for this Bull Rally" He also highlighted that he will be cherry picking some value stocks for the coming months if things don't look too rosy.

All in all 3 to 5% correction is good for the index. What amaze me is the Hang Seng, I think it went for sky diving and forget to bring the chutes! haha.......

With Hong Know now cover in smog and the talk of IB, HF, FM moving out and it be relegated as a Financial Hub, it is damn good news for Singapore. I think we could be in a very good position to take on this role. I have little knowledge in Strategic Studies or Big Picture or any of that mambo jumbo but if we "get" this role to be the leading Financial Hub outside Tokyo. It will do wonders for the SG economy. This first thought that come to my mind, CityDev at $20, CapLand at $10, SGX at $10........drooolllllllll so much potential liquidity and investment coming in. Of course for the man in the street, more and better jobs if you are in the industry.

Stirred not Shaken

Traders will are the ones being stirred or stirring today. Investors would not be shaken that much. On the surface, it looks like a correction but who knows.

Those bears who has been talking the market down, they will be gloating that they are right. But hey, if you are that good. Gimmie a time! instead of just shouting bear.

Today's action on the STI is going to be interesting. 2840 is the 61.8% retracement from 2900 (i derived 2900 (161.8% ext) base on a Fibo Ext from 2664 to 2282) 2803 - 2780 should be some decent support. I think STI will gap down about 25 - 30 pts and perhaps make a further move down.

Brilliant - Update 2

Higher close with higher indicator and volume. 38.5 to 39.0 seen as temp support. EMA chasing price steeply. Looks like higher price to come.

40 cents would be a psychological resistance. Trade summary shows from 38.0 cents on ward, resistance is getting stronger and stronger. If market sentiment is positive tomorrow, we might see a test of 40 cents again. Such impetus like reports and rumours would propel the stock higher.

Brilliant

Higher close with higher indicator and volume. 38.5 to 39.0 seen as temp support. EMA chasing price steeply. Looks like higher price to come. 40 cents would be a psychological resistance.

Trade summary shows from 38.0 cents on ward, resistance is getting stronger and stronger. If market sentiment is positive tomorrow, we might see a test of 40 cents again. Such impetus like reports and rumours would propel the stock higher.

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Brilliant - Update

An update from 19 Nov posting.

This morning, upward price and volume spike. Very encouraging. As mention, 38 to 45 cents region has the least amount of trades done when it tumbled last year. So I foresee every 1 cent up is going to be rather challenging. This morning 38 cents took 1279 lots and 39 cents took 3108 lots to break. I guess, the higher it goes the more resistance it is going to face. Manage to test 39.5 cents but only 2 lots done.

Volume at 1010hrs is 5976 lots done. This is 5 times more than the 50 day volume average. Positive sign. Will provide a day summary later.

Correction - Day 1

Just thinking out loud. Today is day 1, notice some panic selling.

1.) Could be contra trades due and brokerage throw out for those who did not pick up.
2.) Genuine profit taking
3.) Kian Cheong sellers following N225

If Wall Street is does not close positive tonight, tomorrow there might be another round of sell offs resulting in possible margin calls for those with too high gearing. Resulting in more people throwing. What a vicious cycle. Typically, a correction should last about 3 days. Key support for STI is at 2750.

STI

Many people are weary of the new highs that the STI is making but the way i see it, there is not reversal YET. My mentor taught me, " the high can get higher and the lower can get lower " this was illustrated to me very clear in the case of Pearl Energy.

It rocketed up from it's IPO (not sure of the price as it has been de-listed and charts removed) to almost triple its value in a matter of a few months. I thought there was an opportunity to go short but i was immediately slapped on the head by my mentor "u think so easy? U think go up so much mean can short" he proved me right. When the idea surfaced, Pearl Energy was only at $1.6x it went all the way up to almost $2.00 before been bought over by another company. The lesson I want to share is, let the market do what it is suppose to do and only take a position when all our training and gut tells you to.

Where is the STI going, one might ask. I did a simple Fibo extention and the tipping point seems to be at the 2900 region. Personally, I feel one has to be really careful from now till 2900. My "bet" is that there will be a pull back at 2880 to 2900.

When there is reason for market to go down, it is still safe. When there is no reason and the market is charging like no tomorrow, it is likely euphoria has taken over. Dun be mistaken, i am an Eternal Bull but one has to be aware of what is happening. Capricorn Effect seems to be in full swing, however i would think that Dec is a time where the "fun" manager might book some profits before going on an extended holiday. We are no "fun" manager but nothing wrong with cashing those profitable investments/trades and take some money and go spend some quality time with Family and Friends rite :) Huat Arh!!!!

Brilliant

Note Sept 2005 gap is closed (37.5 to 39.5 cents) Someone said in forum, gaps are like magnet and will be attracted to it to close. I think now the challange if for Brilliant to close at 39.5 cents and above.

Last Fridays trade summary shows that there are a lot of Stale Bulls at 38.5 cents. 38 to 45 cents has the lowest volume(trades done, see bar on left of charts), That should be a diffcult region to break thru as there could be a lot of stale bulls awiting to ambush the new bulls.

The lines which you see are resistance/support lines. Those are the areas which i think could pose as a challange for Brilliant to break. What If 50 cents is breach? The next challange followed by 53 cents and after that? I dunno man....the sky is the limit!!! Huat Arh!!! BRILLIANT CHEONG ARH!!

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China Sun

WTF!!! Looks like a kelong to me, there was a buy call and now this! slipped below the supporting trendline, indicators are going to south. Pity those who buy when the call was out. Moving averages are crossing down. To have some sort of safety, i think a buy can be considered only when it break up upper trendline. Best to avoid stocks like this. Not vested

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Brilliant Monthly

Today's close at 33.5 cents looks firm. 33 cents and lower sellers could be exhausted.However, 34 cents is a firm celing for the time being. Monthly charts on Brilliant looks promising. Lets hope its results on 28 Nov will rally the stock up to new highs. MACD has cross over, RSI and STO are also higher and they come hand in hand with higher prices. Lets hope the market will be stable till 2007 and allow Brilliant some leg room to cheong!!!

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Unisteel - Update

An update to my earlier posting on Unisteel. No change, following the wedge up. If it breaks, could be fireworks :) Seksun posted good results. Perhaps, HDD related stocks could get a lift. Unisteel reports 3rd Quarter Results today. Not vested.

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Sunray

Requested by BLSH

Off its lows and found some sort of bottom at 26.5 cents, the move on 16th Oct (5.2 x 50 day average) and 1st Nov (4.6 x 50 day average) with high volume. On days when there is little or no price movement volume is low, could mean that there are less willing sellers at the lower range.

The 20 day EMA is about to move above the 50 day EMA. Likely to hover ard this price range or a possible retracement btw 30.5 to 31.5 cents. Coincidently, the 50 retracement and 200 day EMA is at 33 cents. That could post a fair bit of resistance. Any break (with volume) above this price and holding above could signal a possible reversal of trend. As taught by Ochartist Sifu at SI forum, move above the 200 day EMA then beautiful :)

Do note that this is a short term view.

Not vested
Cheers SM

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China Sun

Requested by Fastrack San

TA from a candlestick point of view, it is a no brainer lah. A Big engulfing candle covering till 30th Oct's downward move. When it closes 73 cents, the window will be covered.

Other indicators are pointing up but with the volume spike (8.3 x more than Friday and 4.9 x more than 50 day average) This is a firm move up. The close is above the 50 and 200 day EMA and above the 38.2% retracement. The challenge would be with the 50% retracement at 74 cents, if that were broken with ease and volume. Likely to test 78 cents this week. The close above the support trendline could mean a resumation of trend.

For those vested at the recent low, huat arh!!! Me, not vested :) SM

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