trying to figure out the science and art of trading and investing

The More You Know, The Less You Know

2008-02-20T23:26:00.002+08:00

I will officially tone down my bearish view on the market unless there are more negative news to justify the view.

Everyday, it seems the more I learn, the less I know about the market. It is pointed out to me that the US yield curve is normal or positive. From this knowledge, it is better to hold a less bearish view.

If there is change in the yield curve from normal to flat, that might raise a few flags.

The market reacted negatively to today's CPI numbers would likely mean that the Fed would reconsider its aggressive rate cut position and take a more hawkish inflationary watch MODE.

AIG's CDS

2008-02-12T00:31:00.000+08:00

CDS iceberg is tipping out of the water, weather it hits like sub-prime, it will unreveal soon.

Today it is just AIG unable to value its CDS, AIG's stock dropped 10%. Will we see more? I think so.

As of this post, Dow is trading at 12132 (-50 pts), off it low.

STI Monthly

2008-02-09T10:44:00.000+08:00

The STI is up 200% since the start of 2003. Today, we are correcting and it is down 73% from its recent highs. Most ppl think this is a correction but technically speaking, when an index is down 20% from its highs, it is the beginning of a bear market. I thing 73% speaks volume.

Seldom are we able to pick the bottom or sell the top, I hope we can see a bottom soon. For the moment i see the bottom around 2200 to 2600 for the STI.

STI Charts

2008-02-06T11:07:00.000+08:00

Cannot pass the dotted downtrend line. I think STI may close at 2888 today. Looks like the rut on Wall Street is not over yet.

Bulls and Bears

2008-01-31T12:57:00.000+08:00

I think people expect the market to drop like a hot brick and hit the bottom. If the charts are telling a story, it looks like a painful and slow death.

Unless STI break the 3150 to 3200 range, i dun think there is any story. There are firm bulls and bears in the market, so at least this market is sane.

I think the maximum activity will be down not up.

SG Market

2008-01-24T12:41:00.000+08:00

If we are going to reverse, we need to break 3200 with volume and gusto. STI is relentless pushing up hard and fast, mimicking our good brother Hang Seng.

I believe there are some can of worms that have yet to be open in this credit crisis. Perhaps, a 75 basis point cut will let the market breathe abit but i dun think the worse if over.

I dun think 3 months of rut can be resolve with a 2 day 300 pts move. I am a bull and like vibrant market but the odds seems to stack against this tired 10 year bull. Maybe it is time, maybe it is not.

Only time will tell, invest and trade safely.

STI Recovers Late In The Session

2008-01-22T17:28:00.000+08:00

End of correction/meltdown? I think it is still too early to be said but that being said, there is money to be made in such fast and furious rebounds.

Those who sold today may wonder why they did it, those who bought are placing bets that Wall Street will not tank too much tonight.

I think we have downside bias for a few more session before a clearer picture can be seen.

STI -VE

2008-01-21T16:20:00.001+08:00

This day was discuss by Stormwatch San and myself on SI forum but i think we have yet to see the worse. Now STI is -4%. Lets see the close, 3000 was easily run over...

Housing Loans

2008-01-18T16:17:00.000+08:00

I was told about the disparity in valuation of houses between 2 banks. Lets assume bank 1 is local and bank 2 is foreign.

Bank 1 value the property at S$2.2M but Bank 2 only value it at S$1.5M, why the disparity? We are talking about a 700K difference. Anyone knows why the big gap? Please share.

Really Can Tahan Man

2008-01-18T14:55:00.000+08:00

Sucker's rally? Maybe i am the sucker who did not participate. There is some good money to be made by just following the charts. I am kaisi lah, no two ways about it.

The market is really very resilient, for 2 days it manage to reverse the early losses and turn positive. That being said, technically and charts wise, new lows are made and highs are getting lower. If you are a chartist you will avoid going long but will short into strength.

Dow charts are also very ugly, lets see what tonight will hold. The last time, the Fed had a one day delay for taking action in the market. Since Ben spoke yesterday, we might see some action tonight.

To Ben Or Not To Ben?

2008-01-17T20:49:00.000+08:00

Merrill Lynch & Co., the world's largest brokerage, on Thursday posted a fourth-quarter loss of nearly $10 billion after writing down some $14.6 billion worth of investments and trades slammed by the ongoing credit crisis.

If Ben were to cut 50 basis it might be too little too late, if 100 basis it might send the wrong signal. Market has priced in a 75 basis cut from Ben.

I feel that we are not done with this "correction" Some say today might be a suckers rally (I belong to that Camp) some say this rebound is going to be the start of a reversal.

Only time will tell :)

How Sia?

2008-01-17T12:34:00.000+08:00

STI almost testing 3000, this is a major pivot point. If it break, i am not sure where all this will go.

I have listed down what are the events that happen and what could be the next posible event, pls feel free to comment or add anything.

Sub-Prime > Credit Crisis > Banks Write Down > Credit Default Swaps? > Extra Ordinary Event? > Ka Boom!!!

What happen in the previous crisis is something like that

Asian Fin Crisis > Russian Debt Crisis > LCTM > Dot.Com > 911

Some food for thought. I feel that we are not done with this correction/possible bear market.

The Morning After

2007-08-02T09:07:00.000+08:00

STI, after a stunning sell off (-115.95 point or 3.26%) we are witnessing a strong rebound (+50 point or about 1.5%) One must be asking, Bear Trap or clear skies ahead. I am uncertain as well but here are my thoughts.

1.) Banks and Financial Institution with sub-prime exposure slowly coming out. Latest being Bear Stearns (3 for BS), HSBC, Macquarie. More to come?

2.) One lender is US lost 90% of its market cap as it sitting on possible bankruptcy. 1st of many?

3.) Many people say that SG is not exposed to sub-prime but do they know it for a fact? Nobody likes to hang out their losses. I maybe paranoid but I believe "there is no smoke without fire"

There are many bulls and bears in the market, which is good. The sanity check will give most of us some perspective. I am light on my portfolio, for a small time investor/trader I prefer to wait for clearer direction before stepping into the colosseum to wrestle the might market lions.

Market Talk

2007-08-01T19:46:00.000+08:00

I highlighted 4 points in my previous post.

I will still stand by them. The sub-prime episode will not be fully comprehended until everyone show hand.

One by one, more institutions are telling of their sub-prime commitments. When will it end, no one know.

The Yen carry trade, some unwinding in progress as Yen move up from 123.xx to 118.xx now.

Does not look good for the moment. I think clearer direction Will emerge after a few more days.

Lets wait and see.

Updates

2007-06-30T12:42:00.000+08:00

It has been a long time.

Been trying to get the problem of sending charts directly from my SI Charts but it seems there is some issue somewhere and till today, I have not been able to get anyone to help me.

It’s been six months since my last post and a lot has happen in the market. Feb 28th steep correction in the SSE was a new beginning of volatility in the China markets. Thou Singapore and the rest of the world has decoupled from the volatility of the Chinese markets, any major correction there WILL affect SG.

As we have witness the last week of trading on Wall Street has been plagued with volatility. It seems we have reached a point where there is some uncertainty in the market. For SG Market, I think it hinges a lot Q2 earnings which is due soon.

Globally, these are the few things to note.

1.) Rising Treasuries, the 10yr is holding above 5%. Should the 2yr and/or 5yr go there, it might signal another round of sell off in the equities market.

2.) Sub-Prime, I am at a lost for this subject but there is much talk about it and how much is actually sub-prime lending. Typically, one will one know the extend of the damage after it has blown up.

3.) Oil prices holding above US$70. If Oil goes any higher, inflation will keep a sore point for the US consumers and Feds.

4.) Major and disorderly unwinding of the Yen carry trade.

I have heard that some investors have been re-balancing their portfolio and holding more cash than equities. I guess there is not harm taking some money off the table.

Star Hub

2007-02-01T20:44:00.001+08:00

trying very hard to stay above trend line. Last minute buy up. Perhaps buying in anticipation of positive results?

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SPH

2007-01-15T17:56:00.001+08:00

TA wise, still strong move up and keeping within raising channels. One thing, that i wish there could be more is the volume. Which is still crusing below the 50 day average. I think this reversal is for real.

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SPH

2007-01-11T09:42:00.000+08:00

Still staying within the rising trend lines. Those who sell early...confirm sian. 7 year reversal, i should think it will last a bit longer. The 25 million done on 5th Jan should provide some floor for the share price. Go elephant!!!

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SPH

2007-01-05T17:30:00.001+08:00

Soild close for the week! $4.56 closing with high volume (almost 5.3 lots done) As results are out on Monday 8 Jan. Either those in the know are buying in anticipation or purely a speculative push before results. Most of the Hse expect a boring set of results this time round. But with TT on board, there may be surprise. The strong move post XD could be different this round. Lets keep our fingers cross :)

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Zhonghui

2007-01-05T08:57:00.001+08:00

supports at 27 cents held. riding up the trend line. indicators are looking bullish. looks like it is possible to test 30 cents today and the recent high of 31.5 cents. I like the biz and the CEO.

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SPH

2007-01-03T19:09:00.000+08:00

Possible cup and handle in the making. Price held post XD and moved up strongly over the last 3 trading session. Volume and Indicators are pointing up strongly. The close today above the trend line is also positive. I hope all bode well for the elephant. Vested.

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Signs

2006-12-08T11:50:00.000+08:00

I reckon when the market is going to dip or make a substainally corrections, one of these seceniro might present itself before the event.

1.) Very high volume with little or no upward price movement.
2.) Higher price with low volume (i use 50 day average vol)

Anything i miss out?

Straits Times Index

2006-12-06T21:53:00.001+08:00

Straits Times Index visited 2900 much earlier than many people expected. I guess many traders and investors were taken aback by this strong move. Much of this strength could be attributed to Wall Street's rally the last two days.

Personally, I am not in the business of predicting the market but in the short 2 years of market experience, I prefer to sell while the market is going up versus throwing in time of panic selling.

Technically, STI has been sitting on top of the upper trend line (drawn from 3rd Aug 2005 to 3rd May 2006) Today would be closing 2 days above it, if this were to continue, there is going to be a fair bit of strength. Looks like STI at 3000 is very possible now. There aren't many put warrants for the STI, if you want to take a short position, I guess there is only the SIMSCI, do remember to have a decent amount of margin if you want to short, this bull might punch thru many levels before giving up. If this were to continue, it will invalidate my current projection of 2880 to 2900.

Penny, Construction and IR stocks are all in play. I have exit most of my long positions and looking for things to play with J Suggestions are always welcome.

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Gold, Oil and The Green Back

2006-11-30T15:17:00.000+08:00

One is an indicator for inflation, one is the cause of inflation and one is sinking like the titanic. So? What is going to happen? If this trend persist, we are likely to see some pull back in global indices.

Market Rant

2006-11-28T22:02:00.000+08:00

20 day EMA and support trend line at 2774, if Wall Street Futures is anything to go by (SGT 2207hrs) it is going to blood shed again. Today's 53 pts drop I think is healthy.

One of my Investor/Trader friend said this "if Dow breach 12000 and close below that, we might be in for a rough ride. If it bounce of 12000, we might see a stronger push up for this Bull Rally" He also highlighted that he will be cherry picking some value stocks for the coming months if things don't look too rosy.

All in all 3 to 5% correction is good for the index. What amaze me is the Hang Seng, I think it went for sky diving and forget to bring the chutes! haha.......

With Hong Know now cover in smog and the talk of IB, HF, FM moving out and it be relegated as a Financial Hub, it is damn good news for Singapore. I think we could be in a very good position to take on this role. I have little knowledge in Strategic Studies or Big Picture or any of that mambo jumbo but if we "get" this role to be the leading Financial Hub outside Tokyo. It will do wonders for the SG economy. This first thought that come to my mind, CityDev at $20, CapLand at $10, SGX at $10........drooolllllllll so much potential liquidity and investment coming in. Of course for the man in the street, more and better jobs if you are in the industry.

Stirred not Shaken

2006-11-28T07:22:00.000+08:00

Traders will are the ones being stirred or stirring today. Investors would not be shaken that much. On the surface, it looks like a correction but who knows.

Those bears who has been talking the market down, they will be gloating that they are right. But hey, if you are that good. Gimmie a time! instead of just shouting bear.

Today's action on the STI is going to be interesting. 2840 is the 61.8% retracement from 2900 (i derived 2900 (161.8% ext) base on a Fibo Ext from 2664 to 2282) 2803 - 2780 should be some decent support. I think STI will gap down about 25 - 30 pts and perhaps make a further move down.

Brilliant - Update 2

2006-11-22T00:34:00.000+08:00

Higher close with higher indicator and volume. 38.5 to 39.0 seen as temp support. EMA chasing price steeply. Looks like higher price to come.

40 cents would be a psychological resistance. Trade summary shows from 38.0 cents on ward, resistance is getting stronger and stronger. If market sentiment is positive tomorrow, we might see a test of 40 cents again. Such impetus like reports and rumours would propel the stock higher.

Brilliant

2006-11-22T00:33:00.000+08:00

Higher close with higher indicator and volume. 38.5 to 39.0 seen as temp support. EMA chasing price steeply. Looks like higher price to come. 40 cents would be a psychological resistance.

Trade summary shows from 38.0 cents on ward, resistance is getting stronger and stronger. If market sentiment is positive tomorrow, we might see a test of 40 cents again. Such impetus like reports and rumours would propel the stock higher.

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Brilliant - Update

2006-11-21T10:05:00.000+08:00

An update from 19 Nov posting.

This morning, upward price and volume spike. Very encouraging. As mention, 38 to 45 cents region has the least amount of trades done when it tumbled last year. So I foresee every 1 cent up is going to be rather challenging. This morning 38 cents took 1279 lots and 39 cents took 3108 lots to break. I guess, the higher it goes the more resistance it is going to face. Manage to test 39.5 cents but only 2 lots done.

Volume at 1010hrs is 5976 lots done. This is 5 times more than the 50 day volume average. Positive sign. Will provide a day summary later.

Correction - Day 1

2006-11-20T20:14:00.000+08:00

Just thinking out loud. Today is day 1, notice some panic selling.

1.) Could be contra trades due and brokerage throw out for those who did not pick up.
2.) Genuine profit taking
3.) Kian Cheong sellers following N225

If Wall Street is does not close positive tonight, tomorrow there might be another round of sell offs resulting in possible margin calls for those with too high gearing. Resulting in more people throwing. What a vicious cycle. Typically, a correction should last about 3 days. Key support for STI is at 2750.

STI

2006-11-19T11:34:00.000+08:00

Many people are weary of the new highs that the STI is making but the way i see it, there is not reversal YET. My mentor taught me, " the high can get higher and the lower can get lower " this was illustrated to me very clear in the case of Pearl Energy.

It rocketed up from it's IPO (not sure of the price as it has been de-listed and charts removed) to almost triple its value in a matter of a few months. I thought there was an opportunity to go short but i was immediately slapped on the head by my mentor "u think so easy? U think go up so much mean can short" he proved me right. When the idea surfaced, Pearl Energy was only at $1.6x it went all the way up to almost $2.00 before been bought over by another company. The lesson I want to share is, let the market do what it is suppose to do and only take a position when all our training and gut tells you to.

Where is the STI going, one might ask. I did a simple Fibo extention and the tipping point seems to be at the 2900 region. Personally, I feel one has to be really careful from now till 2900. My "bet" is that there will be a pull back at 2880 to 2900.

When there is reason for market to go down, it is still safe. When there is no reason and the market is charging like no tomorrow, it is likely euphoria has taken over. Dun be mistaken, i am an Eternal Bull but one has to be aware of what is happening. Capricorn Effect seems to be in full swing, however i would think that Dec is a time where the "fun" manager might book some profits before going on an extended holiday. We are no "fun" manager but nothing wrong with cashing those profitable investments/trades and take some money and go spend some quality time with Family and Friends rite :) Huat Arh!!!!

Brilliant

2006-11-19T08:37:00.001+08:00

Note Sept 2005 gap is closed (37.5 to 39.5 cents) Someone said in forum, gaps are like magnet and will be attracted to it to close. I think now the challange if for Brilliant to close at 39.5 cents and above.

Last Fridays trade summary shows that there are a lot of Stale Bulls at 38.5 cents. 38 to 45 cents has the lowest volume(trades done, see bar on left of charts), That should be a diffcult region to break thru as there could be a lot of stale bulls awiting to ambush the new bulls.

The lines which you see are resistance/support lines. Those are the areas which i think could pose as a challange for Brilliant to break. What If 50 cents is breach? The next challange followed by 53 cents and after that? I dunno man....the sky is the limit!!! Huat Arh!!! BRILLIANT CHEONG ARH!!

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China Sun

2006-11-10T20:10:00.000+08:00

WTF!!! Looks like a kelong to me, there was a buy call and now this! slipped below the supporting trendline, indicators are going to south. Pity those who buy when the call was out. Moving averages are crossing down. To have some sort of safety, i think a buy can be considered only when it break up upper trendline. Best to avoid stocks like this. Not vested

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Brilliant Monthly

2006-11-10T19:58:00.001+08:00

Today's close at 33.5 cents looks firm. 33 cents and lower sellers could be exhausted.However, 34 cents is a firm celing for the time being. Monthly charts on Brilliant looks promising. Lets hope its results on 28 Nov will rally the stock up to new highs. MACD has cross over, RSI and STO are also higher and they come hand in hand with higher prices. Lets hope the market will be stable till 2007 and allow Brilliant some leg room to cheong!!!

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Unisteel - Update

2006-11-07T07:32:00.000+08:00

An update to my earlier posting on Unisteel. No change, following the wedge up. If it breaks, could be fireworks :) Seksun posted good results. Perhaps, HDD related stocks could get a lift. Unisteel reports 3rd Quarter Results today. Not vested.

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Sunray

2006-11-07T00:46:00.000+08:00

Requested by BLSH

Off its lows and found some sort of bottom at 26.5 cents, the move on 16th Oct (5.2 x 50 day average) and 1st Nov (4.6 x 50 day average) with high volume. On days when there is little or no price movement volume is low, could mean that there are less willing sellers at the lower range.

The 20 day EMA is about to move above the 50 day EMA. Likely to hover ard this price range or a possible retracement btw 30.5 to 31.5 cents. Coincidently, the 50 retracement and 200 day EMA is at 33 cents. That could post a fair bit of resistance. Any break (with volume) above this price and holding above could signal a possible reversal of trend. As taught by Ochartist Sifu at SI forum, move above the 200 day EMA then beautiful :)

Do note that this is a short term view.

Not vested
Cheers SM

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China Sun

2006-11-06T19:19:00.000+08:00

Requested by Fastrack San

TA from a candlestick point of view, it is a no brainer lah. A Big engulfing candle covering till 30th Oct's downward move. When it closes 73 cents, the window will be covered.

Other indicators are pointing up but with the volume spike (8.3 x more than Friday and 4.9 x more than 50 day average) This is a firm move up. The close is above the 50 and 200 day EMA and above the 38.2% retracement. The challenge would be with the 50% retracement at 74 cents, if that were broken with ease and volume. Likely to test 78 cents this week. The close above the support trendline could mean a resumation of trend.

For those vested at the recent low, huat arh!!! Me, not vested :) SM

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StarHub - Trade Update

2006-10-17T11:05:00.000+08:00

Trade update, still in the trade. Painful lesson, did not break trendline at $2.27 should have obeyed my TA and sold off. Easily bought back at 2.13 today. Which look like a possible entry point.

The fact that I did not sell of in the previous high, now my psychology is not "right" to take a trade at $2.13

I think I cannot say this enough times to myself, when trading be mechanical. You are trained in TA and when you see a signal. Take it.

Nasdaq

2006-10-06T00:26:00.000+08:00

Just thinking out loud here. I think, with the possible Tech Rally. Nasdaq should part ways with the Dow and S&P soon.

What would this mean for SG market?

Brilliant

2006-10-03T21:14:00.000+08:00

Credit Suisse ups Brilliant from $0.25 to $0.35. It says that the worse is over but prospects are not compelling.

Lets see from a technical point of view.

Brilliant has risen from its low of $0.22. The last month, it has test $0.30 once. Today, with the report out, it is unable to break $0.30. It is either Brilliant breaks the key resistance tomorrow or there will be a pull back before making another attempt at $0.30 again.

Volume has also increased and have been trading above the 50 volume average for the last 18 days. I would like to see it make $0.30 its support soon. Let hope wall street can provide some cataylst in the next few days to weeks to push this bugger up! Need some volume to ensure a concret push up.

Indicators are also looking good. Monthly MACD is about to make a golden cross.

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Venture

2006-10-02T22:54:00.000+08:00

A quick update on Venture. The close above $12.60 (last thursday and friday) was important on its continual upward push. Volume is encouraging as mild correction was with lower volume whereas push upwards are with higher volume.

Indicators are still encouraging. We should Venture testing its recent high of $13.50 soon. I would think it i will be a matter of time before $13.50 become a support. We should have a clearer picture by the weekend.

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Unisteel

2006-09-30T19:47:00.000+08:00

picture/charts speaks a thousand word :)

Star Hub

2006-09-30T17:51:00.000+08:00

Still in the trade, if market setiments are ok. We should see it testing $2.28. Indicators are achieving a higher low with volume picking up steadily. Huat Arh!!!

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Ascott - Update

2006-09-30T17:48:00.000+08:00

Likely to test the upper trend line next week. Indicators are looking good but a concited effort with volume and breaking the upper trendline is the only sure thing to affirm break the wedge.

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MDR

2006-09-30T17:41:00.000+08:00

Broke up on 19 Sept with high volume, however still stuck in trading range of $0.035 to $0.05. I think it was a case of penny stocks running togther as the interest (volume) is steadily decreasing from 19 Sept. Indicators are looking good but my concern is with the volume.

The close on Friday is a good one. Lets see if next week MDR is able to take out the $0.05. Any buy now would be speculative.

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Venture

2006-09-28T01:16:00.000+08:00

Venture got a positive note from DBS and raise its target to $13.90. The price movement of the last 2 days effectively reverse Venture from its previous downtrend. If the momentum can be sustain, we could see it testing the $13.00 level tomorrow and perhaps the recent high of $13.60

The volume, MACD and STO all looks promising. Not vested. With the seasonal rotation coming into play for tech stocks.

Venture can really stand to benefit from this reversal. Going into Q406, some of the tech counters got upgraded by GK this morning as well. It apprears that the stage is set for some tech rally cum year end. However, i think there will be a general market correction before the start of this rally.

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China Sun

2006-09-25T20:28:00.000+08:00

Still traveling in range of the upper and lower trendline. Likely to test the 50% retracement. Volume is way below the 50-day average of 17.5 million shares. All things point to range trading (following the 2 trend lines) Indicators point to a possible downside bias.

The steady decline does not look good. Wall Street Futures looking good (+30 pts now) hope it provides some positive catalyst to move CSB. Not vested.

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Ascott

2006-09-25T18:53:00.000+08:00

A descending wedge formed from the highs of July and August. Volume from 20th Sept indicates selling pressure increasing since then. Indicators do not look pretty. The increased volume and negative divergence of the indicators point to a possible retracement to 38.2% ($0.95) and 23.6% ($0.915).

The likelihood of Ascott bouncing off the 38.2% retracement is high but beware and assess the sentiment before taking a position. I think a clearer picture will emerge by Wednesday for a possible entry point.

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SPH

2006-09-25T15:05:00.000+08:00

A quick update. Results our end of Oct. Closing on to upper trend line. I am likely be pick up some warrants for SPH. Am vested in mother as well.

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Straits Times Index

2006-09-23T18:19:00.000+08:00

Notice the raising wedge. The small wave now seems to be echoing the bigger old wave. If there is not decisive break up, we could see a possible correction coming along. I seriously hope i am wrong about this.

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StarHub - Trade Taken - Update

2006-09-23T09:29:00.000+08:00

Wall street legs soft again. An update on the trade i took yesterday.

TA Wise

If 2.19 do not hold, i will cut my position at 2.15.

Possible re-entry point could be at the recent low of 2.07 or 2.01. If 2.01 breaks with high volume. Suggest caution

Reaons for entry at 2.20, key Fibo retracement level. Hourly charts showing possible reversal. Exhuastion of seller.

Not sure how soft StarHub will be but i will take a punt. No point doing so much TA without trying, i hope i am right :)

FA wise

- CLSA dropped Starhub from portfolio could explain the drop.
- Price Target revision by Goldman from $2.60 to 2.70 but drop rating from Buy to Netural could have some tussle by the bulls and bears.
- BNP covers StarHub with a $2.75 could provide some support.

StarHub - Trade Taken

2006-09-22T15:48:00.000+08:00

Take 5 lots @ 2.20 to tikum. Update with charts later

StarHub - Possible Reversal

2006-09-22T12:13:00.000+08:00

Update on StarHub, possible reversal. Stay tuned.

Star Hub

2006-09-21T01:47:00.000+08:00

Update on StarHub. With reference to my Sept 8 post. It seems the correction is in progress. Better to wait and see. No point taking a weak position now. Let see if the 50% retracement will hold.

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Straits Times Index

2006-09-14T15:21:00.000+08:00

Nicely moving within the secondary trend up after the May corrections. today STI open up but gave away the gains. The STI achieved a higher low (28 Aug, 12 Sept) Beautiful! The lower price of crude helped the market a fair bit this week. Wall Street has been a positve catalyst as well. After the 20 Sept Fed Meeting, i hope it is smooth sailing ahead. This steady upward move will allow STI to challange the highs of May.

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Brilliant

2006-09-13T23:30:00.000+08:00

I must say, I AM DISAPPOINTED with brilliant's performance today. In the morning, things were looking good but slide as the day progress.

Technically Does not look good. Candlesticks show a bearish engulfing pattern over yesterday's candle. Price bounced the 50% retracement at $0.275 to close at 0.280.The failure to close on or above the 200 EMA is also a bit worrying.The increased volume is does make me uneasy. MACD is not a gone case yet but will have to be careful. STO, RSI have divergence. The weekly charts still look good. For this chart I use the 20,50 and 200 day EMA vs. my normal 10,30 and 90 EMA. Please take note.

Gut Feel Most HDD related stocks have made a run, today plastic is in play. Jurtech is leader for HDD/Manufacturing. I "feel" that brilliant run is not over but I could be wrong. Over all, techs are still in play. Lots of room to go.

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Brilliant

2006-09-11T22:06:00.000+08:00

What a beautiful chart. I think these sorts of charts are pretty self-explanatory. If Wall Street close positive tonight. We may see Brilliant testing the $0.30 psychology level and if there is sufficient momentum, perhaps $0.32/$0.325? :)

Today there is movement in most HDD stocks. Like i said last saturday, tech related stocks could be moving. Also, Magnecomp is likely to test blue line theory if Wall Street has a postive close tonight. Please note that blue line theory must be accompained by high volume (typically 100% more than the 50 day average volume to trigger a move, this is just a guide)

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Where Is Oil Money Going?

2006-09-09T10:31:00.000+08:00

Make a wild guess. Crude has dropped more than $US10 from its high. Market is targeting about US$60 - 62. I would like to see it go to US$52 to 58 range. In any case, market is going thru a cycle. I am not saying oil plays are dead, just taking a break. With the decrease in oil prices, transport stocks are likely to benefit.

You can slowly see that tech is coming into flavour. With the christmas shopping season kicking off soon, you can expect some tech stocks to move. The first slavo was fired with Chartered, UTAC and Jur Tech moving from their lows. Last week, MMI was the big winner. Venture looking to acquire. You can expect M&A to generate some activities.

Of course, lets not forget property stocks. Most of them are flying. SC Global, Cap land, Kep Land, City Dev...the list goes on.

Star Hub

2006-09-08T23:43:00.000+08:00

StarHub is presenting an intersting seceniro. Singtel gaining strength after XE but not StarHub. Volume is picking up wtih each bid down. Looks like a correction of some magnitude is coming. As u can see from the Fibo retracement. 2.27, 2.24, 2.19 and 2.06. Lets see where it will go. May pick up some if conditions are right.

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Brilliant

2006-09-08T22:54:00.000+08:00

Interesting movement but i am not too encourage by the lack of volume. Maybe nothing or purely just spill over effect. Do note that Brilliant just XD on Tuesday. Charts is sui but Mr Market is a funny chap! Lets see monday!

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K1 Ventur Daily

2006-09-06T20:08:00.000+08:00

Back by the dividend, it should not drop too much. Seems to be going side ways for now. Likely to gather some strength before the XD. MACD histogram is not going down much. Volume is still very low. Personally, i feel u may need to wait it out. Rem to put stop loss and profit target. Now it is sitting on 50% retracement, lets hope it holds.

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Magnecomp - Update

2006-09-01T12:42:00.000+08:00

Sadly, Magnecomp did not move as planned. After half day of trading, only 1 lot done at $0.815. Very illiquid. To add, today MMI got another upgrade from CS. I alway say. When 1 person say, move the counter to your watchlist and monitor indicators. When the next person say, be prepared to take position. When your friend start discussing with you, look for sell signal!

Again, this is a hoot and hold not for the contra or faint hearted!

Magnecomp

2006-08-31T20:40:00.000+08:00

Hi all, its been a long time since my post. Apparently, all of them got lost in cyberspace. As manually updating this blog is rather time consuming, i found out that it was possible to upload directly via email. It worked fine for a while and the damn thing just stopped working.

Ok, anyway. Back to Biz, magnecomp, not my favourite counter but i keep track cos my crony has it. This fellow shed more than 50% from it highs of $1.50. I would have gotten a heart attack when they announced their profit warning.

It seemed to have found the bottom at around $0.6xx cents. It has since come off its lows and drifted up to a trading range between $0.72 and $0.82. I detected some unusual movement on 29 Aug 2006 and alerted my crony immediately. After which, Ninja San issued a "hoot" and "hold" call. Today, the indicators confirm there could be a possible upside tomorrow.

If it opens high with volume, there could be a possible run. This is could be cyclical thing as Chip stocks have moved and now HDD related stocks are moving. Jurong Tech and MMI have made their moves.

StarHub

2006-07-10T17:21:00.000+08:00

Notice the higher lows that StarHub is achieving, typically is good news lah....i think can consider this an accending triangle. See link for explanation of acceding Triangle. Keep fingers cross for this baby!!!! http://www.stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/triangle-Ascending.html

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SPH

2006-06-30T17:24:00.000+08:00

Test the 23.6% retracement. Hopefully, global markets will be more stable and we can see this ah peck move up. Good luck to those vested.

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SPH

2006-06-22T17:45:00.000+08:00

When When When? No picture no sound. This one STI up never follow, STI down follow! sigh....wat to do? wat to do? this is suppose the bluest of the blue chips. Wat a let down, lets hope its Q3 Earnings will some positive surprise.

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Magnecomp

2006-06-21T17:44:00.000+08:00

One of the worse hit counters, on top of the 6 weeks sell of, it has issued a profit warning, slaming the stock down about 50%. looks like it has found the bottom and on a steady path up but i think it is unlikely that it will return to its previous glorly anytime soon. Near Term resistance, 80 cents.

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Time To Go Long?

2006-06-15T01:09:00.000+08:00

before may 11, losta ppl say global indices are way too high, too much froth. Investors ignoring high oil and commodities price.

After June 11, losta ppl say global sell off overdone.

one of Goldman’s analyst say s&p500 12% undervalue......humm??

Valuations are getting "attractive"

STI at 2180 is the starting point for the most recent bull run to 2666. If we were to bounce of it, it might signal a buy. We shall see :)

judging by the commentary, should be able to go long soon :D

Updates

2006-06-12T14:21:00.000+08:00

Hi, for those of you who read my blog, I would like to apologies for the lack of updates. I update my blog by sending email directly to blogspot, it seems that not all the email were published! I had email them for help but no reply. Typically I update at least once a day but it seems that all my post has been lost in cyberspace! Damn!

Will see what work around I can come up with.

SM

StarHub

2006-06-06T14:51:00.000+08:00

2.16 seems to be the limit today. 30 mins charts looks like it is done for the day. if it holds this price, might see more upside in the coming days.

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Capitaland

2006-05-29T11:43:00.000+08:00

I think Captialand has bottom for now, charts look like it is about to stage a rebound. Personally, i feel that Capland does not need the IR to make it good.

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Straits Times Index

2006-05-29T11:28:00.000+08:00

Mr Market looms in uncertain mood. With Kep and Cap Land not getting the IR deal, there was a big sell off in the morning, however, some people in the SI forum says that it is short covering. 1.) i would like to highlight, how some individuals comment on the market. From what i know, one is not able to tell if one is a genuine buyer or s short seller covering its position. Short of SGX publishing the stats, no one knows. From the 30 mins charts of the STI, market seems a bit soft and SIMSCI is constantly below the spot price. I would think it is a matter of time before the spot market catch up with the SIMSCI. STI indicators also point to come retrcement. Lets see what this afternoon is installed for us.

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Straits Times Index

2006-05-28T11:43:00.000+08:00

What a lovely picutre don't you think? The power of TA bounced off the 26.1% retracement. However, monday is going to be interesting, with both Lands losing the IR bid, it will be interesting to see at what price they open. I am guessing about 4.10 for captialand and 4.16 for kepland. No guess for Citydev lah :) confirm gap up and depending on involvement, Citydev might be testing the previous high of 11.50 :) Technically, the STI is not hugging the lower bollinger band the slide has eased off. RSI looking good bouncing off the 30 and moving up. MACD has a higer low, indicating some strength to come. STO has also bonced off its oversold and slowly creeping up. Have a wonderful week ahead.

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Straits Times Index

2006-05-28T09:01:00.001+08:00

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Straits Times Index

2006-05-28T09:01:00.000+08:00

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StarHub

2006-05-26T22:53:00.000+08:00

Touching the support trend line and bouncing off it. StarHub remains on the up trend. Market is still a bit uncertain although the run today proves to be a welcome change. As of writing this, Wall Street is still up but not by much.

CNBC reporter said that typically the street ends up pre-holiday. I will wait and see. If Wall Street holds and the market sentiment positive, StarHub might retake 50% retracement at $2.15, coincidently it is also the 90 day EMA. SH holds now at 38.1% retracement @ $2.10. All indicators point upwards. Daryl Guppy uses 10, 30 and 90 EMA as it measures short to medium term. I do check with the 200 day/40 week EMA for a more long term view.

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Straits Times Index

2006-05-25T15:24:00.000+08:00

STI has hit a critical retracement level 23.6% If this does not hold, we may test 2190. It is a scary thought. Good luck all.

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Straits Times Index

2006-05-25T10:12:00.000+08:00

Looks like we are stuck in range trading for the time being, if u are me, range trading is better than dropping like bird shit. My observations tells me that the market is looking for a leader and wall street is not showing it could lead now due to numerous domestic deraliers. Perhaps, the big boys in North Asia and Europe could show the way? Good luck to those still vested in the markets.

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Magnecomp

2006-05-23T17:31:00.000+08:00

So many tails on this fellow. Shows resiliant, with big boys buying, not sure why keep on sliding. My friend sweating over this fellow. Hope he put on a good show soon.

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Straits Times Index

2006-05-19T14:05:00.000+08:00

Some signs of relieve for the SG market. Hope it will hold. N225 and HSI are in the black already. Hope they Hold. Wall Street Futures are also up.

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StarHub

2006-05-18T19:04:00.000+08:00

A super bumpy ride for StarHub, opening at $2.10 and diving to an intraday low of $2.02. Those who were quick to captialise on the drop would have made a decent profit in very stormy day. ML wrote that StarHub might return up to S$500 million in the form of share buy back, that could have supported the price today. Their target is S$2.50. Chart looks poise for a run up barring unforseen circumstance.

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Longcheer

2006-05-18T18:52:00.000+08:00

Bouncing off the 50% retracement. MACD and STO show some side ways movement. Volume is low to push the stock up or down. Purely on a technical basis, this counter might be in range till it gather sufficent momentum to push up. Lets not forget the currnet storm that is brewing in the global equities market.

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Straits Times Index

2006-05-18T18:46:00.000+08:00

What a ride, when penning this, Wall Street Futures are sharply up. I hope this is not the end of the Bull Run. Fundamentally, global economic and geo-political tension has not deviated very much from 1 month ago. However, the bears are out in full force and contrarians are predicting a full fledge bear on slough.

The STI hourly charts show some reprieved but a lot will have to depend on Europe and Wall Street's performance tonight. Keeping my fingers cross.

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STI ETF 100

2006-05-18T13:02:00.000+08:00

IMHO, possible entry point maybe coming up. North Asia markets retreating from its lows and Wall Street Futures point higher. SG afternoon session will be important to determine. Hope this bloodshed will end today.

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Ferrochina

2006-05-17T11:02:00.000+08:00

My aunt and my friend highlighted to me before but I tunnel vision and selective hearing. Otherwise this is a decent chicken rice money for this week! what an idiot!

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StarHub Daily

2006-05-16T18:38:00.000+08:00

Since reaching its high, StarHub has been steadily sold down. It has been getting mixed reviews from the investment banks. The most conservative Philips Research, has upped its target to S$2.64. This target is inline with Macquarie Research S$2.60, JP Morgan S$2.71 to S$3.34, OCBC Research S$2.45, Citibank S$2.60 with the exception of Lehman Brothers S$2.10 target. Looks like Lehman might be right :)

Setting my sights a bit further, StarHub will be coming up with Captial Management in June, this effective might return a heafty sum to shareholders. Market talk is rumored from 10 cents to 25 cents per share. If this were to happen, be assured a good run up before the pay out.

My personal technical target for this stock is between S$2.41 to S$2.70 in the medium term. In the short term, in line with the global markets and SG market correction. SS$2.00 should be a strong support and likely to stay in range trading between S$2.00 to S$2.20.

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Straits Times Index

2006-05-16T17:58:00.000+08:00

STI should be recovering, Europe is coming off its lows. If the PPI numbers are in line tonite, Wall Street would breathe easier.

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EMA (Exponential Moving Average)

2006-05-02T20:54:00.000+08:00

A simple and clear article on trading using EMA (Exponential Moving Average) A kaki of Ninjatrader wrote it.

Trading - Jadason

2006-05-02T20:34:00.000+08:00

Jadason - Hourly
Jadason - Daily
TA

This counter had a good run up from Mid-Feb 2006. On the day charts, I think sell signal could emerge very soon. On the 1 hour and 30 mins charts, sell signals have already confirmed. I would like to state that sell signal does not mean it is a good time to short as retracement might be short lived for bullish stocks (like Jadason, tech sector is a bullish now) This is a TA view and not a FA view. Barring unforseeen circumstance and news, it will retrace.

FA and GuthrieG

2006-04-28T19:47:00.000+08:00

It has been a long time since I updated my blog. Was overseas and could not find the time.

They way I look at stocks have changed somewhat after attending a course.

One method of looks for gems is thru NAV or asset backing, this is the net worth of the company assuming that it is liquidated and everything is distributed back to the shareholders.

I have on my list these 3 companies

As you can see, these 3 counters are trailing their NAV, of course there is a need for a catalyst to propel these stocks to chase after their NAV and beyond. A possibility of them trading below their NAV are

1.) They are in a cyclical business
2.) In the midst of changing the business and found a new direction

I have enclosed GuthrieG monthly charts. It seems poise for a run.

Touching upper bollinger band, increased volume, higher MACD histogram, STO has higher low, RSI crusing up.....NAV $0.4912

Show me the money!!!

Barring unforseen circumstance, should do well in the coming weeks to months.

StarHub

2006-03-29T14:35:00.000+08:00

Seems like selling has intensified! Hope StarHub support at $2.20 will hold. Good luck to me. Sian liao....

29 March 2006

2006-03-29T13:07:00.000+08:00

What can I say? CAO is back and hogging the limelight. Open at $1.30 and shot to a high of $1.85. I was all ready to short the bugger at $1.80 but after thinking how hard I earn my money thru FA and TA, I am not ready to donate back to the market. So I held back and watched my supposed profits clinking at the back of my mind.

Anyway, there is some mild profit taking for StarHub. The low volume and 2 cents decline is nothing to be too concern about. With the Reverse Head & Shoulder break out the past 3 days and closing at $2.23 yesterday is a positive sign. Typically the previous resistance should act as support. I am looking at a support level between $2.20 and some strong support at $2.14 to $2.16.

ZHONGGUO POWERPLUS was featured in the Sunday Times as an undervalued stock. I would bet that nobody looked at it before Sunday. Anyway, this fellow had a stellar run since Monday. Now, I am attend a course on FA, I hope to be able to contribute positively to the investment community soon. I have Decipher and Gallen to thank as what they do encourage me to share what I have learnt (be it positive or negative ...hehe)

With the STI achieving new highs, I would like to share 2 things. The high can get higher and correction is imminent :). Be nimble.

StarHub - R H&S Formation

2006-03-28T13:58:00.000+08:00

A possible break out, however volume is key. Will have to see if the volume is sustainable tomorrow for the break out to be clean and clear making 2.20 to 2.23 resistance to be support. The various brokerage and investment banks have been crying a buy for StarHub for about 3 months and their average price for Starhub is between $2.20 to $2.60, lets see if this is the break. StarHub CHEONG AH!!!!!

StarHub - Blue Line Theory - Revision

2006-03-28T13:46:00.000+08:00

Decipher posted this as one of the quick picks on his blog yesterday night. If you have bought some when I posted, you should be reaping the benefits :)

With StarHub going Pay-Per-View for the world cup, it will definitely contribute positively to its bottom-line. Shareholders will be happy (like myself) For the viewers, it is a different story. Well, this is a case of demand and supply.

Soccer is the world most popular game. The organizers know it, the advertisers know it. This is the time where everything can command a premium. There are black markets tickets for popular games selling on the net; everyone wants to make a buck from this global event.

I guess the only crime the fans commit is the passion and devotion to the game and the price for this crime is S$15.25 for exsisting sports group subscriber or S$26.25 for non-sports group subscriber.

Delayed In Microsoft Windows "Vista"

2006-03-23T15:00:00.000+08:00

Tech Stocks got another sell off on Tuesday when Microsoft (MS) delayed it's launch of the new Windows Operating System "Vista" This knee jerk effect is to be expected as MS Windows is loaded on all PCs. With every updated version of Windows, there is typically a need for one to upgrade their hardware as the requirement is usually increased.

One very key requirement that is always goes up is the storage footprint of the operating system. From the early days of MS Windows, it was below 100 megabyte to the Current Windows XP, which takes up about 2 Gigabyte of hard disk space. It is understandable why Seagate and Maxtor were badly hit. On the whole, the NASDAQ was hit, as other companies that are involved, chip producers, Ram producers, etc....were hit.

I have enclosed an update chart for some of the HDD parts suppliers in SG. Seagate just announced a US$300 Million plant in woodlands; this will definitely give a leg up to the supplier’s price.

HDD Sector - Commentary

2006-03-13T22:27:00.000+08:00

B19.SI (Beyonics), M14.SI(Magnecomp), J09.SI(Jurong Tech), B01.SI (Brilliant), M29.SI (MMI)

From my simplistic point of view.

HDD related stocks (selective tech stock) have been hammered since the first week of Feb. Today, some of the HDD related stocks seems to on a reversal. Those which display some strength are MMI, Jurong Tech and Beyonics.

Brilliant, Magnecomp are still weak. As of now, Seagate and Maxtor are showing some strength on Wall Street and making some gains. I feel that the last month's consolidation is healthy.

With increase demand in consumer electronics (that require HDD storage medium) the HDD sector should be on a positive stepping as demand continues to drive the tech sector in general. Barring unforeseen circumstance, we will be able to see continual positive upside to the tech sector globally and locally.

HDD Sector

2006-03-13T11:17:00.000+08:00

I think HDD related stocks going to run soon. Follow up with commentary later.

Tech Sector - Recent Sell Off - Part II

2006-03-10T10:18:00.000+08:00

To add on to my earlier post. DB upgraded Chartered to from hold to buy with a target of S$1.80 (last traded $1.42 GMT +8 1030hrs) This upgrade affirms my believe that the tech sector (not to be confuse tech with internet related stocks i.e. Google, yahoo, etc) in on the right track, although it is a slow one but at least it is not going to be like the previous bubble where it burst and all hell broke lose.

Tech Sector - Recent Sell Off

2006-03-09T10:01:00.000+08:00

I feel that the recent sell off was unwarranted. Tech sector has been slowly recovering since early 2005. Inventories have been cleared and with the demand in consumer electronics on the rise, the fundamentals are in place. TI's results was in inline but missed analyst expectations (analyst will be analyst, always shooting for impossible targets)

I think there should be a rebound in tech stocks soon.

StarHub - Blue Line Theory - Part 2

2006-03-08T08:46:00.000+08:00

To add from my earlier post, the last 5 trading days StarHub has been a consolidation phase with yesterday breaking the $2.17 price which it as stuck during the phase.

8153 lots were married at between $2.152 to $2.171, with the large bulk of 6496 lots done at $2.152. These trade could be one rich man selling to another, FM taking positions, etc. with this married deal and price action over the last 5 days, $2.15 could be establish as a first support and next down $2.13 (20 MA) Another point to note is that the number buy up to sell down is 1.33 to 1.

Yesterday volume was a healthy 4.7 million share. It was 1 million more than the previous day. An average of 3 million shares is typically sufficient to move StarHub. With Decipher's blue theory, we could see it break $2.20 in the coming days to weeks. This trading week is larger plague with interest rate news and lower than expected tech earnings. This could be a dampener to the bullish push we saw yesterday.

The recent merger between AT&T and Bellsouth is sign that traditional Telco needs to innovate and find news revenue stream. The big triumph card that Telco has is a big fat pipe to homes. IPTV and Subscription TV will add a positive bottom line contributor. With this in mind, StarHub is in a unique position to be one of the first few triple play providers (Mobile, Cable TV and Broadband) to harness the new wave.

I am personally vested in this counter so my views could be more bullish.